THE JAMES' OSCAR PICKS 2007

Howdy all. Thought I would register my picks early, and if it helps you in any office pools, bets, etc...feel free to thank me later. I'll keep commentary and the range of choices limited to my predicted winners and the main categories, but if you want the full spectrum, email me and I'm happy to send it to you. Let's get started:

Nominees for Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Peter O'Toole (Venus), Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness), Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland). I'm going with the safe bet. Not only did this man win the SAG and Golden Globe Awards, but his body of work is most deserving and his performance is supposed to be uncanny as Idi Amin. DiCaprio's "work" as a South African in BD is a joke, and he screwed his chances by being pushed for both BD and Departed, Gosling is a dark horse, but doesn't have the body of work, O'Toole is a sentimental favorite...always nominated but never a win (criminal that he didn't win for Lawrence of Arabia or Becket), and Will Smith just doesn't have the chops. My money and Justice (not that it exists) falls on Forest Whitaker (Ghost Dog, The Crying Game, The Shield, Bloodsport...LOL, that's for you JJ) to take home the statue.

Nominees for Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine), Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls), Mark Wahlberg (The Departed). Arkin is the sentimental favorite, and I'd be fine with him winning. Honsou is just an amazing actor in process of building an impressive list of screen credits...but Blood Diamond isn't one of them. Wahlberg puts in a good performance in Scorcese's remake, and I'd also be fine with him winning...after Boogie Nights and Huckabees, this is my favorite performance of his. Now we come to the real battle: Haley v/s Murphy. Former child actor, Jackie Earle Haley of The Bad News Bears flicks (he played Kelly Leak) comes back to deliver an impressive performance of a truly conflicted individual...a child molester. Any other year, I'd say he would take it...but he's battling Eddie Murphy's comeback in Dreamgirls, and you know how people love comebacks. We remember all the things they did to impress us before, and lose ourselves in the nostaliga of what our lives were like back then...subconsciously linking those memories to that person's performances. They're triumph becomes ours...and that's why I'm betting Eddie will take the Oscar. However, there is the possibility of upset...which Eddie is helping with the release of crap like Norbit, and then I'd say it would be between Haley and Wahlberg.

Nominees for Best Actress: Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Helen Mirren (The Queen), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), Kate Winslet (Little Children). This category really has some talented actresses. Cruz has won acclaim at Cannes for her performance in Pedro Almodovar's Volver, and has a laudable body of work behind her. Likewise Judi Dench has won before, and has several nominations, as does the almost obligatory annual nomination of Meryl Streep (though if anyone argues that this is an Oscar performance for Prada, I would say you're an idiot), but I think it's really between Kate Winslett and Helen Mirren. Go with the safe money, like me, and the pick is Helen Mirren as Elizabeth II in The Queen. She's got the best credits with no wins, and has won all the awards leading up to the show.

Nominees for Best Supporting Actress: Adriana Barazza (Babel), Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal), Abigal Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), Rinko Kikuchi (Babel). Safe bet again lays the trophy with Golden Globe winner, Hudson, for Dreamgirls. I thought Breslin was amazing in Little Miss Sunshine, but as far as child actresses go...why Ivana Banquero wasn't nominated for Best Actress for playing Ofelia in Pan's Labyrinth remains a mystery to me. However, Breslin needs to develop a list of credits, Blanchett (while awesome as usual) already has a win, and I don't feel any vibe on Bazarra or Kikuchi for Babel...so I believe Jennifer Hudson will take home the statue.

Nominees for Best Picture: Babel, The Departed, Letters From Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen. My heart screams Eastwood again and again and again here...since according to all accounts (I'm seeing it next weekend) he has created another masterpiece from the master-artisan phase of his legendary career. However, with 2 wins as Best Director and Best Film, I think it's unlikely. Little Miss Sunshine will not win since it's not exactly Oscar Fare (they don't normally like comedies) and it truly was a triumph to be nominated, and The Queen won't win because not enough people have seen it. This leaves us to the battle...Babel v/s The Departed. The safe bet is Babel...winning the Golden Globe award earlier this year...but I'm picking The Departed. Yes, I said The Departed...even though it made my List of Worst Films of '06. As I said in my review, I liked parts...but Infernal Affairs (the original Hong Kong flick it's based upon) was better and DiCaprio was miscast. Most of the Oscar-alumni haven't seen IA, and are enchanted with DiCaprio (which I hope wears off soon), and I think it's Scorcese's time. They've passed him over time and time again...but now I think and hope that he will be rewarded for Goodfellas, Raging Bull, Cape Fear, Mean Streets, The Last Temptation of Christ, Casino, and other classics. However, Babel may win...since Hollywood likes to think that because they vote a certain way, talk about things they don't understand on television, or wear their smarmy ribbons and t-shirts...that they are actually "doing something" to support causes and highlight issues that are far too complex and, literally, ugly for them to truly dirty their hands with. So they may make themselves feel good and vote for Babel, while their illegal third-world housekeepers and servants work for pennies in their mansions at home.

Nominees for Best Director: Alejando Inaritu (Babel), Martin Scorsese (The Departed), Clint Eastwood (Letters From Iwo Jima), Stephen Frears (The Queen), Paul Greengrass (United 93). My pick here is Scorcese, for all the reasons that I outlined above in the Best Film category. In my mind Eastwood would win every time, but he's beaten Scorcese twice now, and I hope/think that the Academy realizes that sometimes they need to honor Altmans, Kurosawas, Kubricks, Scotts, and other true visionaries with Oscars, and not just the ceremonial kind. Don't know how Greengrass is nominated for Director of a film not considered good enough to make the Best Film category, and the others are again competing against Scorcese's whole body of work, not just his current entry.

Nominees for Best Foreign Film: After the Wedding (Denmark), Days of Glory (Algeria), The Lives of Others (Germany), Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico), Water (Canada). Tough call...if there was any justice then Guillermo Del Toro's Pan's Labyrinth, the only one on the list I've actually seen, would win. That film was amazing...and just another great film in the developing career of a great filmmaker (Blade 2, Hellboy). I've heard good things about Water, but this one is up in the air. I actually wish that Eastwood's Iwo Jima was an entry here, and therefore a sure winner like it did at the Golden Globes, but I'd be thrilled with Del Toro getting some much deserved recognition. So...I'm picking Pan's Labryinth...although it's with my heart, and from nowhere else.


Nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay: Borat, Children of Men, The Departed, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal. This one is tough...Borat has a chance, since it's genius work and this is the only thing it could possibly win. Likewise, it's a crime that Children of Men isn't nominated for Best Film and Best Director, since it's SO MUCH BETTER THAN THE DEPARTED, amongst others in the category. The Departed has a definite shot if the Academy decides to make it Scorcese's night, and I'd put Little Children and Notes up as dark horses. I'm betting on Children of Men to take it, since it should have been nominated and could have won the big two. Let's hope some justice prevails. However, like I said...don't be surprised if The Departed takes this one too.

Nominees for Best Original Screenplay: Babel, Letters From Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, Pan's Labyrinth, The Queen. Again, my heart says Del Toro's Pan's Labyrinth since he wrote the screenplay also. However, I'd say the competition will come from Iwo Jima and Sunshine. I'm going to go out on a limb and take Pan's Labyrinth again, even though the safer bet will be on Sunshine, I believe, to win a vote on what Hollywood thinks is independent spirit, and just so that cute girl can get more camera time.

Those are my major picks...some are with the heart, and not purely logical...some are what "should be" and not necessarily what will be. On the other hand, if it was me nominating and choosing (like in the perfect world it would be) then nominees for Best Film would be The Fountain, Children of Men, Pan's Labyrinth, Letters from Iwo Jima, and The Departed. Likewise for their respective directors. Yes...I'd put The Departed on the list, but that's because I also feel Scorcese is an unhonored Master, and his body of a work as a whole triumphs over those of filmmakers who haven't won, but are nominated. Anyway, check out the Oscars (the only awards show I watch annually...although I will be watching The Grammy's this year, since The Police are reuniting) on February 25, 2007. Until next time...The James is out.